mystery

the track path of the cyclone still remains unpredictable..
The cyclone grows as of now towards the tamilnadu -andra border coasts
The conditions as of now is favorouble to drag the system towards indian coast
This conditions will stay as such until 72 hrs of the growth
Tomorrow by 5.30 pm IST we can get to know the systems recurves and leave the indian coast
We can hope that the fourable conditions will be there after 72HRS ie IST 5.30 pm to 8.30 pm(12/5/2013)
This 3 hours to the if the cyclone MAHESAN can grow in NW direction (10N82E) then the system is for indian coast.Then we are sure to get a mini MONSOON

Expected track of the cyclone

cyclone formation

0000 UTC 10 May 2013

A MASSIVE SYSTEM IS FORMED ...BUT THIS TIME THE CYCLONE WONT GIVE A SINGLE DROP OF RAIN FOR WESTERNGHATS. IF THE CYCLONE WAS FOR CHENNAI COAST THEN RAINS FROMS THIS SHOULD HAVE BEEN A MINI MONSOON.THAT BIG IS THE DEPRESSION SIZE.AND THE WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TO REACH 210 KM/HR

latest update 01b

   DATE     TIME    LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION   ID   NAME
 20130510   0830     5.3   -92.3     T2.0/2.0       01B  NONAME          
 20130510   0230     4.6   -93.7     T1.5/1.5       92B  92B             
 20130508   0830     5.8   -89.2     Too Weak       92B  92B             
 20130508   0230     5.8   -89.5     T1.0/1.0       92B  92B  

latest uodate

Home IR w/ Low Level Winds - N/S Indian - Latest Available Basins Mouseover for list Product Info Time Step -6hr +6hr IR Imagery with Low Level Winds 850mb Vorticity

Deviation expected to happen in coming cyclone......Westernghats i doubt no down pour

AS THE LATEST ECMWF IMAGES AND TRACK SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS ORISSA COAST AND MAY HIT THE ORISSA COAST ON 15TH OR 16 MAY.IT MAY RAIN IN TAMILNADU BUT NOT SURE LETS WAIT TILL 11TH TO UPDATE MORE

tpw

SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - Indian Ocean

Current time: Wed, 08 May 2013 15:03:33 GMT 

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